Where Did Spring Go?

Warnings, Watches And Severe Weather Outlook

For period beyond the next day or two  

Issued: Wed 7 October 2009 at 0222 pm, Valid from Fri 9 October 2009 to Mon 12 October 2009

 On Friday a deepening low over the Tasman Sea should move onto the North Island while a cold southeast flow strengthens over the southern and central New Zealand. Rain is expected to become widespread over most of the North Island and upper South Island on Friday. The heaviest falls are expected in northwest Nelson although heavy falls also look possible across the rest of the Nelson, northern Marlborough, Wellington and Wairarapa and southern Hawkes Bay. During Friday, as northerly rain overruns a cold southeast flow, snow is likely to fall to low levels over the northern half of the South Island. There is an increasing possibility of heavy snowfalls down as low as 300 metres over much of North Canterbury and Marlborough, with a lesser risk for mid Canterbury and inland parts of Nelson and Buller. By the end of Friday and into Saturday morning snow is likely to lower to about 500 or 600 metres over the southern half of the North Island with increasing likelihhod of heavy snowfalls again for the central North Island and parts of Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. During Saturday the strong cold southerlies should spread over all the North Island but with heavy rain or snow easing to a few showers by Saturday evening. A ridge of high pressure should move onto New Zealand on Sunday, and a northwest flow spread onto the South Island on Monday.

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen. Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen. High confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.